Wednesday, March 26, 2008

can we say "skittish?"

Here's a fun note that shows how insanely skittish the market has become:

Crude rises on surprise inventories data, weaker dollar
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures surged more than 4% Wednesday to close near $106 a barrel as a government report showed U.S. crude inventories were unchanged last week and as the dollar fell against other currencies. Crude for May delivery rallied $4.68, or 4.6%, to settle at $105.9 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other energy futures also moved higher. U.S. crude stockpiles held steady at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts surveyed by energy information provider Platts had been looking for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.


In a nutshell, when oil inventories came in less than 0.5% below estimates, the market jumps up over 4%! Panic buying I think is what they call it. Regardless, I have to guess everyone in the oil trading pit at this point knows about peak oil and that's why they're so worried about making sure they are "in" on any massive runup.

2 comments:

Steve said...

I'm not joking here, btw. What shit should we be reading up on so we can put ourselves in a position to be gaining and losing half our annual income over the period of three weeks?!

Energy futures sound interesting, for sure, given what's going on. What shit should we be reading on that?

Todd said...

hey Steve! sorry i totally missed this.

What to read up on... First I think it's important to really grok what a futures contract is. Lots of people don't, esp. since the idea of long-term futures contracts (all the ones I buy are long-term) I believe is a relatively new one where not too many people are trading them.

I'd go to optionsxpress and sign up for an account. They have a *ton* of educational stuff, they even have a virtual trading thing where you can practice for a few weeks or months before laying out any cash.

I'll send you an invite so if you decide to eventually fund it we'll both make $100. What's your email? Ping me directly at toddwking2000 @ yahoo.

if you get serious about it though let's chat about it sometime.