Sunday, March 30, 2008
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Peppers!
My pal, Sam visited the island of Cuba and took a bunch of photos. Because of my love of hot peppers I've posted this one, but she has lots of cool pictures of modern Cuba. Check out her photo album.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Polish movie posters
Don't know what the deal is, but the Poles produce their own artwork for Amurr'kin and other countries' movies. Maybe it's a copyright issue. Whatever the reason for this, many Polish movie posters transcend mere advertisement.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Good lord
Talk about lo-fi. Here's Arckanum's "Gava Fran Trulen":
I think that guy is a Muppet that got abandoned at the drawing board. His growl at the beginning not only doesn't scare my daughter but manages to crack me the hell up every time. Parody, please?
Thank you.
I think that guy is a Muppet that got abandoned at the drawing board. His growl at the beginning not only doesn't scare my daughter but manages to crack me the hell up every time. Parody, please?
Thank you.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
can we say "skittish?"
Here's a fun note that shows how insanely skittish the market has become:
Crude rises on surprise inventories data, weaker dollar
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures surged more than 4% Wednesday to close near $106 a barrel as a government report showed U.S. crude inventories were unchanged last week and as the dollar fell against other currencies. Crude for May delivery rallied $4.68, or 4.6%, to settle at $105.9 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other energy futures also moved higher. U.S. crude stockpiles held steady at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts surveyed by energy information provider Platts had been looking for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
In a nutshell, when oil inventories came in less than 0.5% below estimates, the market jumps up over 4%! Panic buying I think is what they call it. Regardless, I have to guess everyone in the oil trading pit at this point knows about peak oil and that's why they're so worried about making sure they are "in" on any massive runup.
Crude rises on surprise inventories data, weaker dollar
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures surged more than 4% Wednesday to close near $106 a barrel as a government report showed U.S. crude inventories were unchanged last week and as the dollar fell against other currencies. Crude for May delivery rallied $4.68, or 4.6%, to settle at $105.9 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other energy futures also moved higher. U.S. crude stockpiles held steady at 311.8 million barrels in the week ended March 21, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts surveyed by energy information provider Platts had been looking for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
In a nutshell, when oil inventories came in less than 0.5% below estimates, the market jumps up over 4%! Panic buying I think is what they call it. Regardless, I have to guess everyone in the oil trading pit at this point knows about peak oil and that's why they're so worried about making sure they are "in" on any massive runup.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
fun times
so, since my last post...
Recent transactions:
Notice that I bought a contract, and turned around and sold it 3 days later for a hefty loss (about $6500). But I'm getting ahead of myself - here's the real story:
SO I've been investing in this new thing called futures (see previous post) - and, holy shit - I'm making money hand over fist. Made like $65k or something crazy. right away too, within weeks.
Then, I decide to press my luck (see transactions above). Then everything comes crashing down, and all of the sudden I've lost all of my winnings and I'm nearing a margin call (ie. I have to put up more $$ or they'll force me to close out a position (or two). So I sell one - the one I just bought a few days ago.
Turns out the past few weeks has been a roller coaster by any measure. I was reading about all the unprecedented rise and then more about his unprecedented fall in oil and natural gas and what-not. panic buying and selling is what they called it.
Needless to say, last week was quite a welcome into the futures trading market. It was fun going up, not so fun going down. Thankfully I didn't lose my shirt.
I know at this point that I'm too heavily leveraged, but I can't seem to get myself to close out some positions to reduce my risk. Here is what the current holdings are:
what do you say - roll the dice and keep these holdings? Or play it safe and cash out a bunch of these?
Recent transactions:
| 03/17/2008 | Buy To Open | 1 | CLZ15 | Crude Oil DEC 2015 | 100.30 | |
| 03/17/2008 | Buy To Open | 1 | NGZ11 | Natural Gas DEC 2011 | 9.410 | |
| 03/20/2008 | Sell To Close | 1 | NGZ11 | Natural Gas DEC 2011 | 8.760 |
Notice that I bought a contract, and turned around and sold it 3 days later for a hefty loss (about $6500). But I'm getting ahead of myself - here's the real story:
SO I've been investing in this new thing called futures (see previous post) - and, holy shit - I'm making money hand over fist. Made like $65k or something crazy. right away too, within weeks.
Then, I decide to press my luck (see transactions above). Then everything comes crashing down, and all of the sudden I've lost all of my winnings and I'm nearing a margin call (ie. I have to put up more $$ or they'll force me to close out a position (or two). So I sell one - the one I just bought a few days ago.
Turns out the past few weeks has been a roller coaster by any measure. I was reading about all the unprecedented rise and then more about his unprecedented fall in oil and natural gas and what-not. panic buying and selling is what they called it.
Needless to say, last week was quite a welcome into the futures trading market. It was fun going up, not so fun going down. Thankfully I didn't lose my shirt.
I know at this point that I'm too heavily leveraged, but I can't seem to get myself to close out some positions to reduce my risk. Here is what the current holdings are:
| Symbol | Description | Qty | Cost Basis | Price | Change | Gain/Loss $ |
| CLZ15CRUDE OIL DEC 2015 | CRUDE OIL DEC 2015 | 3 | 99.85 | 97.74 | 0 | -6,330.00 |
| CLZ16CRUDE OIL DEC 2016 | CRUDE OIL DEC 2016 | 2 | 92.12 | 98.2 | 0.27 | 12,160.00 |
| ECM9EURO FX JUN 2009 | EURO FX JUN 2009 | 1 | 1.5275 | 1.5259 | 0 | -200 |
| NGM13NATURAL GAS JUN 2013 | NATURAL GAS JUN 2013 | 1 | 7.889 | 8.596 | 0 | 7,070.00 |
| NGZ13NATURAL GAS DEC 2013 | NATURAL GAS DEC 2013 | 2 | 8.935 | 8.941 | 0 | 130 |
| SPU9S&P 500 INDEX SEP 2009 | S&P 500 INDEX SEP 2009 | -1 | 1325.2 | 1354.4 | 0 | -7,300.00 |
what do you say - roll the dice and keep these holdings? Or play it safe and cash out a bunch of these?
If You Watch Only One Black Metal Satire Today...
...make it this one.
Gut. Busting. Funny. Black metal fans--at least the employable ones--have a very articulate sense of humor about their music. Cheers to that.
Gut. Busting. Funny. Black metal fans--at least the employable ones--have a very articulate sense of humor about their music. Cheers to that.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Saturday, March 22, 2008
What?
I suppose I shoulda provided text for this post. Anyway, looks like Mappe Bjorkman of Candlemass is going to jail for a coupla years. Seems he and a buddy were stealing CDs from the warehouse they worked at and sold them at a cut rate to retailers. And we're talking lots of CDs! Too bad.
Friday, March 21, 2008
I Declare Today to Be. . .
"Nobody Is Allowed to Make Fun of Immortal" Day.
Here are some samples from the Facebook group "Any Picture Can Be Improved by Adding Immortal to It"
http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=10353855&blogID=275697519
Here are some samples from the Facebook group "Any Picture Can Be Improved by Adding Immortal to It"
http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=10353855&blogID=275697519
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Russian Forest Psycho
This is an article about the recent demise of a recluse who lived ferally in the woods for 20 years, menacing all who came near, including cops and federal agents. Maybe he's the third in the death trilogy of Arthur C. Clarke and Anthony Minghella.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Arthur C. Clarke is Dead, Alas
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7304004.stm
Childhood's End and The Fountains of Paradise are two of my favorite sci-fi novels. Sucker lived to be 90, which is better than most of us will do. RIP
Childhood's End and The Fountains of Paradise are two of my favorite sci-fi novels. Sucker lived to be 90, which is better than most of us will do. RIP
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Game on
OK, devoted readers. I'm back!
I've been pretty down over the past little while and didn't have anything to say... Until now!
Lately, I've been a'buyin (and a'sellin) futures. I've learned that commodities & futures are where it's at, baby. In a nutshell, I'm convinced that we're in a commodity cycle, we've been in one for a while, and we'll continue to be in one for a while. Some call it a "super cycle" - I could care less about what "they" say though. Basically with India and China exploding at the same time energy is peaking, everyone is going to be going after stuff - not stock.
On top of that, every single signal about the US economy points toward inflation and/or bad things. This includes the Fed's hiding of the M3 money supply, Bernanke's willingness to lower rates at a moment's notice, the Fed explicitly saying "liquidity is fine" for Bear Stearns 4 days before its collapse, or the insane debt culture most recently epitomized by this ludicrous "stimulus rebate" that's coming up here in a few months.
I could go on, but I won't - So here's the game plan:
I'm giving up on trying to figure a way out of this mess, and I'm going to focus on investing with the hope that we have a few years. I'll lay out each of my buys and sells of futures, and some blah blah blah about why I did whatever - or whatever I feel like.
So here's where I'm at so far:
DATE Quantity Price Item
Jan 30 Long - 1 91.24 Crude Oil - Dec 2016 (CLZ16)
Jan 31 Long - 1 7.889 Natural Gas - Jun 2013 (NGM13)
Feb 15 Long - 1 8.919 Natural Gas - Dec 2013 (NGZ13)
Feb 15 Long - 1 93.10 Crude Oil - Dec 2016 (CLZ16)
Feb 21 Long - 1 8.950 Natural Gas - Dec 2013 (NGZ13)
Mar 04 Short -1 1325.20 S&P 500 - Sep 2009 (SPU9)
Mar 10 Long - 1 98.25 Crude Oil - Dec 2015 (CLZ15)
Mar 12 Long - 1 101.00 Crude Oil - Dec 2015 (CLZ15)
Mar 14 Long - 1 1.5275 Euro - Jun 2009 (ECM9)
And here's what I'm thinking right now:
- I'd really like to hedge better against global inflation. Oil is good, but gold would be great. It's way up though, and I already have a bunch of gold in ETFs and mutual funds. Even so, I could get out of the ETFs and what-not and have a lot less cash tied up in gold, but still quite leveraged. Thus, I'm on the fence. But I'll be all over it if gold falls to 900 or so.
- Would like to buy some regular commodities as well. But I don't know jack about them, so I think I'll hold off until I feel a little smarter. Pork bellies and cattle (both feed and lean) seem like obvious buys. but what do i know.
- One thing I do know is that the US dollar ain't going up anytime soon. So I might as well get another Euro, or short the dollar, or something. It turns out that shorting the dollar is a the same as buying a basket of currencies, of which a little over half is the Euro. So the difference isn't that big of a difference.
- I'm thinking that the vast majority of players in this futures market are just short-term traders trying to make a quick buck, not long-term investors. In addition, I believe that longer term futures (such as the 2013 and 2015 ones I've bought) are relatively new. That is, normally, they only make futures a year or less out. Between these two, it seems like these longer-term futures are something of a new asset class, something that the academics haven't considered yet. don't know about all that, but oil is sure as hell going to cost a lot more in 5-10 years than it does now, that's for sure. And I'm willing to bet on it :)
I've been pretty down over the past little while and didn't have anything to say... Until now!
Lately, I've been a'buyin (and a'sellin) futures. I've learned that commodities & futures are where it's at, baby. In a nutshell, I'm convinced that we're in a commodity cycle, we've been in one for a while, and we'll continue to be in one for a while. Some call it a "super cycle" - I could care less about what "they" say though. Basically with India and China exploding at the same time energy is peaking, everyone is going to be going after stuff - not stock.
On top of that, every single signal about the US economy points toward inflation and/or bad things. This includes the Fed's hiding of the M3 money supply, Bernanke's willingness to lower rates at a moment's notice, the Fed explicitly saying "liquidity is fine" for Bear Stearns 4 days before its collapse, or the insane debt culture most recently epitomized by this ludicrous "stimulus rebate" that's coming up here in a few months.
I could go on, but I won't - So here's the game plan:
I'm giving up on trying to figure a way out of this mess, and I'm going to focus on investing with the hope that we have a few years. I'll lay out each of my buys and sells of futures, and some blah blah blah about why I did whatever - or whatever I feel like.
So here's where I'm at so far:
DATE Quantity Price Item
Jan 30 Long - 1 91.24 Crude Oil - Dec 2016 (CLZ16)
Jan 31 Long - 1 7.889 Natural Gas - Jun 2013 (NGM13)
Feb 15 Long - 1 8.919 Natural Gas - Dec 2013 (NGZ13)
Feb 15 Long - 1 93.10 Crude Oil - Dec 2016 (CLZ16)
Feb 21 Long - 1 8.950 Natural Gas - Dec 2013 (NGZ13)
Mar 04 Short -1 1325.20 S&P 500 - Sep 2009 (SPU9)
Mar 10 Long - 1 98.25 Crude Oil - Dec 2015 (CLZ15)
Mar 12 Long - 1 101.00 Crude Oil - Dec 2015 (CLZ15)
Mar 14 Long - 1 1.5275 Euro - Jun 2009 (ECM9)
And here's what I'm thinking right now:
- I'd really like to hedge better against global inflation. Oil is good, but gold would be great. It's way up though, and I already have a bunch of gold in ETFs and mutual funds. Even so, I could get out of the ETFs and what-not and have a lot less cash tied up in gold, but still quite leveraged. Thus, I'm on the fence. But I'll be all over it if gold falls to 900 or so.
- Would like to buy some regular commodities as well. But I don't know jack about them, so I think I'll hold off until I feel a little smarter. Pork bellies and cattle (both feed and lean) seem like obvious buys. but what do i know.
- One thing I do know is that the US dollar ain't going up anytime soon. So I might as well get another Euro, or short the dollar, or something. It turns out that shorting the dollar is a the same as buying a basket of currencies, of which a little over half is the Euro. So the difference isn't that big of a difference.
- I'm thinking that the vast majority of players in this futures market are just short-term traders trying to make a quick buck, not long-term investors. In addition, I believe that longer term futures (such as the 2013 and 2015 ones I've bought) are relatively new. That is, normally, they only make futures a year or less out. Between these two, it seems like these longer-term futures are something of a new asset class, something that the academics haven't considered yet. don't know about all that, but oil is sure as hell going to cost a lot more in 5-10 years than it does now, that's for sure. And I'm willing to bet on it :)
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Metal puppy
The clip is set to loud death metal, so be prepared. In case you're curious, I believe the band is Vital Remains. Not positive though...
This Is Just Fucking Awful
"Der Sohn Ohlwez Scheinz Auf T.V."
If you love 80s synth-pop as much as I do, the original gets gay with far fewer kids:
In fact, a-ha's first album is pretty excellent on the whole despite all the teen-pop preening.
If you love 80s synth-pop as much as I do, the original gets gay with far fewer kids:
In fact, a-ha's first album is pretty excellent on the whole despite all the teen-pop preening.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Monday, March 10, 2008
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Freak who is impervious to cold
Here's a story about a Dutchman who ran half a marathon in the arctic circle, wearing only a pair of shorts. What. The. Fuck?
Monday, March 3, 2008
The Gall of Gaahl
Check out Parts I-V of True Norwegian Black Metal. Dig the wisdom of Gaahl and the sycophantic knob-flobbers documenting him. I think Gorgoroth got their name onomotopoetically from the sound of Gaahl Groupies Gargling his Goatseed at the Grim (and Frostbitten) Gaybar.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
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